For a USD pair, the USD/SEK is showing some relative strength compared to other USD pairs this week. It’s worth noting as it has been a leading indicator for the DXY from time to time over the years.

10-15-15USDSEK

Here is the USD/SEK weekly chart. Notice how the weekly candle is attempting to create a “Hammer” formation at the range lows.

10-15-15DXYUSDSEK

Here is the USD/SEK (candle) and DXY (blue line) weekly charts. Notice how the USD/SEK surged many weeks ahead of the DXY in early 2014

 

Blake Morrow

Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade

 

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The USD/SEK is approaching critical resistance on the weekly chart as we approach the 8.0000 level. Like the EUR/USD as it approaches the 1.1700 level (critical support of 1.1639 Nov 2005 lows) a lot of these levels will hold or break dependent on the actions of the ECB in the coming weeks.

The USD/SEK 8.000 level (as seen below) has a confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from 2008 highs to 2011 lows. Also a 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 2012 highs to 2013 lows. This confluence (approx 8.0000) will be a major congestion level until after the ECB meeting January 22nd. I suspect a break or rejection of this level will take place following the ECB meeting.The ECB will influence the EUR/USD exchange rate which tends to be an inverse relationship to the USD/SEK.

1-5-15USDSEK

Blake Morrow

Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade

 

Disclaimer: I have been long the USD/SEK exchange rate for the last several weeks.

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